Booming lithium demand is driving rapid brine extraction across the Andean salars—but its impact on ground stability remains largely unknown. Using a decade of satellite radar data, this study investigates whether subsidence observed at one site is part of a broader, region-wide response across the Lithium Triangle.
Introduction
With the global rise in lithium demand for rechargeable battery production, lithium mining in the high Andes has expanded significantly over recent years (Vera et al., 2023; Trahey et al., 2020). The extraction of lithium involves pumping large quantities of groundwater to the surface where it is then evaporated (Vera et al. 2023), yet the impact of this extraction on ground surface stability remains poorly studied. Using satellite radar interferometry (InSAR), recent work has shown that brine pumping at the Salar de Olaroz in northwest Argentina produced up to 17 cm of localised subsidence (Lenardon et al., 2023). Whether similar deformation is occurring at other salars across the Lithium Triangle, the region containing an estimated 50-85% of the world’s continental lithium brine deposits (Vera et al., 2023), is an open question.
To explore this, I used LiCSBAS2, an open-source Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) time series analysis package that uses pre-computed interferograms from the COMET-LiCS platform (Morishita et al., 2020; COMET, 2026), to inspect four salars for surface displacement between 2016 and 2026: Salar del Rincon, Salar de Olaroz, Salar de Aguas Calientes II, and Salar de Llullaillaco (Fig. 1). These were primarily selected by visual identification of solar evaporation ponds in optical satellite imagery. The analysis was conducted during a four-week internship in early 2026.
This internship was supervised by Prof. Dr. Bodo Bookhagen.
Regional Context
The Lithium Triangle spans areas of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile across the Altiplano-Puna Plateau - the central Andes - and the second-largest orogenic plateau after Tibet (Allmendinger et al., 1997). Although the Altiplano and Puna are sometimes used interchangeably, they both describe morphologically different areas: the Bolivian Altiplano is a broad and flat region, while the Argentine Puna is characterized by internal drainage with reverse-fault-bounded basins and ranges (Allmendinger et al., 1997). On average, the elevation of the plateau is around 3,750 m, formed by non-collisional convergence between the Nazca and South American plates at rates of around 10 cm per year (Pardo-Casas & Molnar, 1987; Eckelmann et al., 2013).
The geological structural configuration consists of northwest to southeast trending reverse faults and east to west volcanic chains. This combination creates the closed hydrological basins where salars formed at the topographic low points. The only water discharge from the salars is through evaporation, resulting in concentrations of dissolved metals into hypersaline brines (Reidel, 2025).
In the region there are two primary types of salars: mature halitic salars and immature clastic salars (Houston et al., 2011). Mature salars have thick salt crusts that build up over long periods through transport with evaporation of groundwater brines (Ruch et al., 2012). Because the water table under the halite nucleus of mature salars is typically quite shallow, continued halite crystal precipitation can cause the surface to naturally uplift (Ruch et al., 2012). Immature clastic salars are dominated by sediment input, such as sands or clay that are transported in via alluvial fans or land slides. These salars have a thinner halite crust and usually a lower developed brine system (Ruch et al., 2012). This difference does influence the pattern interpretation of the InSAR analysis, because actively growing salt bodies may show a natural uplift, which may also mask some finer subsidence signals from brine extraction.
The following sections will further elaborate on the applied methods and showcase the results for each salar, followed by a discussion.
Data and Methods
Data
The InSAR time series analyses were carried out between 2015-2026, but not all data were used. The start date was determined by the data availability of Sentinel 1 SAR scenes and COMET-LiCS interferograms, which have been available since 2016 (COMET, 2026).
Tools
COMET-LiCS provides EU Copernicus Sentinel-1 tiled InSAR products. These interferograms are generally within two weeks of acquisition (COMET, 2026). For the InSAR time series analysis, LiCSBAS2, an open-source Python and Bash package, was used to derive displacement time series and velocity maps from the COMET-LiCS frames (Morishita et al., 2020). A custom Bash pipeline was created to automate all steps of the LiCSBAS2 workflow for reproducibility and ease of repeated use. Post-processing visualization and analysis were carried out in both QGIS and with Python scripts.
Processes
The LiCSBAS2 pipeline included all available processing steps, including atmospheric correction using GACOS. Required manual inputs were the frame ID, start and end dates, bounding box coordinates, multilook factor, coherence filter value, and output directory. Simple error handling logic was built in to prevent pipeline termination when GACOS files were unavailable.
The vertical displacement (d_v) was derived from the cumulative line-of-sight displacement (d_LOS) by dividing by the vertical component of the unit LOS vector (U) on a per-pixel basis: d_v=d_LOS/U, where U=cos(θ_inc). This assumes negligible horizontal displacement at the salars investigated, which could be validated in future work by decomposing ascending and descending geometries.
For the displacement calculations and maps, rasters and .h5 files were clipped to masks that were roughly hand-drawn along the visible borders of the salars. This method is not the most precise and must be refined in further work, using, for example, the USGS salar shapefiles (Mihalasky et al., 2020).
Parameters
For these LiCSBAS2 runs, the overall same parameters were applied. A coherence filter of 0.2 was used, which in future work should be redone and increased to at least 0.4, to ensure fewer artifacts are included in the time series analysis. A multilook factor of 2 was used, as this reduced phase noise, and improved coherence estimates. It was kept relatively modest, as I wanted to retain finer spatial detail, to be able to identify potential small-scale variations and influences of features. The start and end dates were generally also the same, from 23.12.2015 to 24.12.2025, with the end date being limited by the time the analyses were done earlier this year. Only Salar del Rincon had its end date clipped to 2022, as the COMET-LiCS interferograms for that frame were not available between 2022 and 2024 during the time of this project.
The following frame was used for all salars except Rincon: 149A_11428_131313. For Rincon, the frame used was 083D_11452_131313. Hence, Rincon was the only salar inspected with a descending frame.
Salar Case Studies
In this section each inspected salar will be briefly presented with the relevant observations and insights. The outputs include two primary figures: a time series plot showcasing the vertical displacement velocity over the observation period, and a map showcasing the spatial vertical displacement rates of each salar. Aside from these velocity visuals, the cumulative displacement values were also calculated and are represented through various statistical metrics.
Salar del Rincón
Local Context
Salar del Rincón is located at approximately 3,730 m elevation in the Puna region of the Salta Province, Argentina, within a closed basin averaging 4,170 m. At roughly 30,000 ha, it is the largest salar by surface area examined in this study and is estimated to hold the second-largest lithium deposit in Argentina (mindat, 2025). The salar is classified as a mature halitic salar, with a well-developed halite nucleus and concentric evaporite zonation. The climate is hyperarid, with mean annual precipitation of approximately 81 mm and high solar radiation (Reidel, 2025).
The associated mining project, the Rincón West Project, is owned by Argentina Lithium and Energy Corp. Since 2022, several exploratory drilling campaigns have been conducted; however, no preliminary economic assessment has been completed and no commercial-scale brine extraction has taken place. Production is projected to begin in 2028 (Reidel, 2025). The InSAR observation period (2016-2022) therefore predates any significant extraction activity, and the results serve as a pre-mining baseline.
Results
The Theil-Sen overall mean vertical velocity is -0.10 mm/yr (Fig. 2), indicating near-zero net displacement over the observation period (clipped to <= 01.01.2022, due to data gap). There is a small cumulative change of +2.10 mm from the first to the last epoch. A piecewise linear fit identifies a breakpoint on 6 May 2020. Prior to this date the trend is slightly negative (-1.64 mm/yr), while the post-break segment shows a stronger uplift trend (+6.30 mm/yr). The residual scatter around the piecewise trend is moderate (RMSE 5.25 mm) and the sinusoidal fit captures an approximately annual periodic component with an amplitude of 1.81 mm.
The displacement map (Fig. 3), shows that the retained signal is concentrated along the salar margins and surrounding alluvial fans.
Interpretation
The near-zero net displacement and absence of a subsidence signal are consistent with the pre-mining status of this salar. The seasonal periodicity visible in the sinusoidal fit likely reflects cyclic groundwater recharge and evaporation, a pattern also observed at other salars in this study.
The data gap between 2022 and 2024 is a key limitation, as exploratory drilling commenced in 2022 and any early-stage effects would not be captured in this analysis.
Salar de Olaroz
Local Context
The Salar de Olaroz forms the northern portion of the Cauchari-Olaroz salar complex, located at approximately 3,900 m elevation in the Jujuy Province of northwest Argentina. The basin is structurally controlled by north-south trending high-angle faults that form deep basins, cross-cut by northwest-southeast trending lineaments (Burga et al., 2024). The salar is classified as a mature halitic salar and is the only site in this study with longer active commercial-scale lithium extraction during the observation period.
The lithium extraction project is operated by Minera Exar S.A. a joint venture company owned by Lithium Argentina (54.1%), Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd. (37.4%), and the provincial state company Jujuy Energia y Mineria Sociedad del Estado (JEMSE) (8.5%) (Burga et al. 2024). Exploration began in 2009 and has included surface brine sampling, seismic and gravity surveys, vertical electrical sounding, and multiple drilling campaigns. Production brine pumping commenced in 2018 at the Cauchari Salar, with extraction expanding into the Olaroz Salar from 2019 onward. By 2020, the complex had 24 production wells, and brine production increased by 70% in 2021 (Burga et al., 2024).
Results
The Olaroz time series spans 2016 to late 2025 (395 epochs; 9.84 years) and shows long-term subsidence (Fig. 4), the strongest deformation signal of the four salars. The Theil-Sen trend estimate yields an overall mean vertical velocity of -8.16 mm/yr, with a cumulative change from the first to last epoch of -60.40 mm.
The piecewise linear fit identifies a breakpoint in mid-December 2020. Prior to this breakpoint, the surface shows comparatively weak subsidence of -1.35 mm/yr, which indicates near-stable behavior. After the breakpoint, subsidence accelerates significantly and continues at an average rate of -17.26 mm/yr. The residual scatter around the trend is higher than for the other salars with a RMSE of 13.16 mm. The remaining annual periodic signal is modest in comparison, with an amplitude of around 2.41 mm. The seasonal patterns may be overshadowed by the dominant subsidence trend after 2020.
The displacement map (Fig. 5), reveals a distinct spatial pattern: a concentrated subsidence bowl in the southern half of the salar interior, reaching velocities below −32 mm/yr. The subsidence signal diminishes radially outward, with the northern margins and surrounding alluvial fans showing near-zero or slight positive displacement.
Interpretation
It is difficult to distinguish the precise start of brine pumping at Olaroz, since the project documentation (Burga et al., 2024) typically refers to the entire Cauchari-Olaroz complex, and not Olaroz on its own. While the available data does not provide exact pumping volumes, a circumstantial temporal basis for correlation is strong, between the increase in well numbers and the onset of accelerated subsidence.
Lenardon et al. (2023) reported up to 17 cm of localised subsidence at this salar, based on observations ending in early October 2020. The present analysis extends the record by five years and finds localised subsidence reaching 27.5 cm at the final epoch. Whether the pre-breakpoint signals are consistent between the two studies should be verified more precisely in future work.
Salar de Llullaillaco
Local Context
Salar de Llullaillaco is located in the Puna region of the Salta province in Argentina, at an average elevation of approximately 3,900 m, southeast of one of the highest stratovolcanoes, named Llullaillaco. The salar hosts the Mariana Project, operated by Litio Minera Argentina S.A., a subsidiary of Ganfeng Lithium Group Co., Ltd. (Ganfeng Lithium Latam, 2023). Although the first evaporation pond was filled as early as January 2023 (Secretaria de Mineria, 2024), lithium mine production formally began in 2025 (TNR Gold Corp., 2025), followed by the first export of lithium chloride in February 2026 (Panorama Minero, 2026). The observation period (2016–2025) therefore spans the transition from a pre-mining baseline into the earliest stages of commercial extraction.
The extraction targets lithium-bearing brines at depths of 328 m or greater, using a conventional pump-and-evaporation approach. Based on the available information in the already cited sources, the salar appears to be moderately mature, though detailed characterization remains limited due to a lack of public information.
Results
Llullaillaco shows a consistent gradual uplift over the full time series (Fig. 6), accumulating around +21.6 mm from the first to last epoch. The Theil-Sen trend estimate indicates an average uplift rate of +3.07 mm/yr over the 9.84-year observation period (396 epochs).
The piecewise linear fit identifies a breakpoint around 23 May 2024. Prior to this date, the AOI mean time series exhibits sustained uplift at +3.29 mm/yr, whereas after the breakpoint the trend shifts to a slight subsidence of -0.93 mm/yr. The piecewise model fits the AOI-mean time series closely (RMSE 2.24 mm). The sinusoidal fit on the detrended residuals suggests only a weak seasonal component, with an annual amplitude of around 0.79 mm.
The displacement map (Fig. 7) shows broadly positive velocities across most of the salar interior, reaching up to approximately +9.6 mm/yr in the central area. Coherence is retained over most of the salar surface, providing good spatial coverage.
Interpretation
The dominant positive displacement trend of around +3 mm/yr is consistent with natural halite crust growth at a moderately mature salar (Ruch et al., 2012). The breakpoint in May 2024 is noteworthy and may indicate the first influence of commercial lithium production. Although the production only began in 2025, the evaporation-pond filling in January 2023 and preparatory brine abstraction may have commenced before the formal production date, which may be directly linked to the change in trends.
Salar Aguas Calientes II
Local Context
Salar Aguas Calientes II is named as such on the OSM Standard basemap, however, the USGS salar shapefile identifies it as Salar de Aguas Calientes. Because several salars in the region share this name, various authors use the latitude (23°30’ S) to distinguish this particular basin. It was selected as a control site because it has no known lithium extraction or other major anthropogenic activity, providing a reference for natural baseline deformation against which the other salars can be compared. However, due to limited publicly available information, this assumption is based on optical satellite imagery and has not been independently verified.
The salar is located at an average altitude of approximately 4,220 m, roughly halfway between Salar de Atacama and Salar de Olaroz in Chile. Geomorphological evidence points to a formerly wetter paleoclimate, with a paleolake having overflowed into the basin. Current erosion features and spring activity along the western margin suggest active groundwater processes that could influence seasonal displacement signals (Stoertz & Ericksen, 1974).
Results
The time-series for Aguas Calientes (Fig. 8) indicates a continuous steady increase in vertical displacement rates over the 9.84 year observation period (395 epochs). A Theil-Sen trend estimate yields an average vertical velocity of +2.22 mm/yr, with a RMSE of 5.10 mm, and a cumulative increase of +19.63 mm from the first to last epoch. A piecewise linear model identifies a breakpoint on 29 December 2018. Prior to this date, the deformation is characterized by a slight negative trend (-0.72 mm/yr), while the post-breakpoint segment exhibits sustained uplift at +2.62 mm/yr. The sinusoidal fit captures an annual periodic signal that appears relatively stable.
The displacement map (Fig. 9) shows velocities with a maximum of +3.6 mm/yr. In it are two major clusters of predominantly larger positive velocities, while some marginal areas show near-zero or slightly negative values. A localised anomaly is visible on the western margin, potentially spatially coinciding with the spring activity area noted by Stoertz & Ericksen (1984).
Interpretation
Aguas Calientes displays the clearest example of a natural baseline deformation signal among the four salars in this study. The steady +2.22 mm/yr trend, absence of any known anthropogenic disturbance, and spatially uniform positive displacement across the salar interior are consistent with gradual halite crust growth driven by evaporation of shallow groundwater and ongoing salt precipitation (Ruch et al., 2012). Without pre-2016 deformation data, it is difficult to determine whether the breakpoint in December of 2018 represents a longer-term change in trends or an anomaly.
As a control site with no brine extraction, the natural uplift rate observed here provides a useful comparison. The similarity to Llullaillaco’s pre-mining uplift rate (+3.07 mm/yr) suggests that low-magnitude positive displacement is a common natural background process at Puna salars, against which extraction-induced subsidence, as observed at Olaroz, can be distinguished.
Discussion
Compare and Contrast
As seen in Fig. 10 and Table 1 below, the three salars without full commercial-scale extraction, all show low-magnitude positive displacement, while the Salar de Olaroz, with productive brine pumping, shows significant subsidence.
The non-full-commercial-extracting salars all show positive displacement at rates within Ruch et al. (2012)’s observed rates of natural halite crust growth at mature salars in the Atacama desert. This growth likely comes from capillary halite precipitation due to solar driven evaporation that draws salty groundwater though the permeable halite mass, and is therefore often the default state of salars.
The subsidence at Olaroz is significantly larger than any natural signal observed at the other salars. It also appears to correlate temporally with the increase of production wells between 2019-2021. Which strongly suggests a significant impact of the groundwater extraction on the surface deformation of salars.
Seasonal Signals
All four salars show some annual patterns, but amplitude varies strongly and can be overshadowed by long-term trends (notably at Olaroz). The likely driver is the wet and dry seasonal cycle that leads to seasonal inflation and subsidence. Of the salars, Rincón and Aguas Calientes show the closest seasonal match. Further details regarding seasonal signals haven’t been explored, such as correlation to climatic events, or influences of other parameters on the seasonal amplitude. These seasonal patterns, particularly for the shorter time series at Rincón, may strongly influence velocity estimates.
Limitations
Several limitations affect the data, processing, and interpretation of this study and should be considered when evaluating the results.
Data
The COMET-LiCS interferograms for Salar del Rincón were unavailable between 2022 and 2024, producing the shortest time series of the four sites and preventing any observation of the period in which exploratory drilling began. Furthermore, all salars except Rincón, descending, were processed using a single ascending track, meaning that any horizontal displacement component is projected into the vertical estimate rather than being independently resolved.
Processing
A coherence threshold of 0.2 was applied, which is lower than the commonly recommended minimum of 0.4 and may allow phase-noise artefacts to enter the time series. This may have led to some of the extreme outliers in the displacement values.
Salar boundaries were drawn by hand rather than with a standardised method (e.g. USGS salar polygons), introducing imprecision in the area statistics. Finally, the LOS-to-vertical conversion assumes negligible horizontal displacement, which has not been validated with independent data.
Interpretation
Exact brine pumping start dates for the salars could not be determined, as project documentation is typically quite broad in their reporting. Therefore the temporal correlation remains circumstantial. Furthermore, most of the studied salars have not yet entered commercial-scale extraction during the observation period, limiting the ability to detect extraction-induced trend changes. Additionally, although the 9 year observation period exceeds that of earlier InSAR studies, it remains relatively short to long-term geological and hydrological cycles that may influence salar surface dynamics. Finally, the assumption that Aguas Calientes is free of anthropogenic influence was based on optical satellite imagery and has not been independently verified.
Future Work
Immediate Improvements
The LiCSBAS2 pipeline should be re-run for all salars with a coherence threshold of at least 0.4 to reduce phase-noise artefacts. Salar boundaries should be redefined using USGS salar shapefiles in place of the current hand-drawn masks, improving the precision and reproducibility of areal statistics. The COMET-LiCS data catalogue for the Rincón frame should be revisited to determine whether the interferograms covering the 2022-2024 gap have since become available; if so, the time series should be extended to capture the period in which exploratory drilling commenced.
Geometry Decomposition
Where reasonable, both ascending and descending-track data should be incorporated for all salars to decompose the line-of-sight signal into separate vertical and horizontal displacement components, removing the current reliance on the assumption of negligible horizontal motion.
Continued Monitoring
Salar de Llullaillaco is a particularly important target for ongoing observation: commercial brine extraction only began in 2025, and the pre-mining uplift baseline established in this study (+3.07 mm/yr) provides a clear reference against which any future extraction-induced subsidence can be detected. Continued InSAR monitoring through 2026-2028, as production volumes increase, could be informative.
Validation and Extension
The InSAR-derived displacement fields should be compared with independent geodetic measurements (e.g. GNSS or levelling data) where available, to validate both the magnitude and direction of the observed signals. Finally, the study should be extended to additional salars across the Lithium Triangle that already have multi-year histories of active brine extraction, enabling a more robust assessment of the relationship between pumping intensity and surface subsidence.
Conclusion
This project used LiCSBAS2 InSAR time series analysis to investigate surface deformation at four salars in the Altiplano-Puna region between 2016 and 2025. Three of the four sites - Salar del Rincón (-0.10 mm/yr), Salar de Llullaillaco (+3.07 mm/yr), and Salar Aguas Calientes (+2.22 mm/yr) - exhibit low-magnitude deformation consistent with natural halite crust growth dynamics. Salar de Olaroz, the only site with longer active commercial-scale brine extraction shows mean cumulative subsidence of -60.40 mm and surface deformation velocity of -8.16 mm/yr. The substantial deformation trend temporally appears to correlate with the increase of production wells from 2020 onward. This contrast, and the sudden change in trend trajectory, strongly suggests that groundwater extraction for lithium production is the dominant driver of the subsidence observed at Olaroz. The results extend the findings of Lenardon et al. (2023) by several years and confirm that subsidence has continued and likely accelerated since their study period ended.
With commercial extraction increasing in the region, the pre-mining uplift baseline for several salars provides a reference for detecting future extraction-induced subsidence. Continued InSAR monitoring across the Lithium Triangle, combined with the improvements and validation methods outlined in this work, will be essential to understand the broader environmental consequences of lithium brine extraction on salar surface stability and perhaps the regional hydrological systems.
Acknowledgements
This internship was supervised by Prof. Dr. Bodo Bookhagen.
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